| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-02 (Courtney) CT-05 (Murphy) GA-12 (Barrow) IL-08 (Bean) IN-02 (Donnelly) IN-08 (Ellsworth) KS-03 (Moore) MN-01 (Walz) NH-02 (Hodes) NY-19 (Hall) NY-24 (Arcuri) OH-18 (Space) PA-08 (Murphy) PA-11 (Kanjorski) TX-23 (Rodriguez) | AZ-05 (Mitchell) AZ-08 (Giffords) CA-11 (McNerney) FL-16 (Mahoney) GA-08 (Marshall) IL-11 (Open) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KS-02 (Boyda) KY-03 (Yarmuth) LA-06 (Cazayoux) MS-01 (Childers) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-25 (Open) OR-05 (Open) PA-04 (Altmire) PA-10 (Carney) WI-08 (Kagen) | AK-AL (Young) AL-05 (Open) AZ-01 (Open) MN-03 (Open) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NM-01 (Open) NY-13 (Open) NY-26 (Open) OH-15 (Open) OH-16 (Open) TX-22 (Lampson) VA-11 (Open) | CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) IL-10 (Kirk) LA-04 (Open) MI-07 (Walberg) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MO-06 (Graves) NC-08 (Hayes) NV-03 (Porter) NY-29 (Kuhl) OH-01 (Chabot) OH-02 (Schmidt) WA-08 (Reichert) | AL-02 (Open) AZ-03 (Shadegg) CA-04 (Open) CA-26 (Dreier) CA-46 (Rohrabacher) FL-08 (Keller) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-15 (Open) FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-24 (Feeney) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) ID-01 (Sali) IL-06 (Roskam) IL-18 (Open) KY-02 (Open) MD-01 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-09 (Open) NE-02 (Terry) NJ-05 (Garrett) NM-02 (Open) NV-02 (Heller) OH-07 (Open) PA-06 (Gerlach) TX-10 (McCaul) VA-02 (Drake) VA-10 (Wolf) WV-02 (Capito) WY-AL (Open) |
|
15 D
|
17 D, 2 R
|
2 D, 11 R
|
13 R
|
29 R
|
Races to Watch:
| AL-03 (Rogers) | IN-04 (Buyer) | PA-15 (Dent) |
| CA-45 (Bono Mack) | KS-04 (Tiahrt) | PA-18 (Murphy) |
| CA-50 (Bilbray) | MN-02 (Kline) | SC-01 (Brown) |
| FL-09 (Bilirakis) | NC-10 (McHenry) | SC-02 (Wilson) |
| IA-04 (Latham) | OH-14 (LaTourette) | TN-04 (Davis) |
| IL-13 (Biggert) | PA-03 (English) | TX-07 (Culberson) |
| IN-03 (Souder) | PA-05 (Open) | VA-05 (Goode) |
Today’s Ratings Changes:
Democrat Charlie Brown probably got the less formidable opponent when Conservative Icon Tom McClintock beat former Rep. Doug Ose in the GOP primary here. But despite McClintock’s baggage from several failed statewide bids and his carpetbagging ways, Brown will have a hell of a time getting the 50% he needs in this R+11 seat. While he does indeed have a fighting chance, McCain is likely to dominate in this district at the top the ticket, giving a crucial advantage to the somewhat damaged McClintock.
Nebraska’s 2nd CD featured a surprisingly close contest in 2006, when Democrat Jim Esch fell short of incumbent Lee Terry by 10 points. However, there are signs that this Omaha-based district may be competitive on the presidential level this year, with a recent poll by SurveyUSA showing Obama within spitting distance of McCain here. Indeed, Terry has been quite vocal about Obama’s strength in the district, even going so far as to attempt to tie himself to Obama by hyping the many “Obama-Terry voters” who are sprouting up across the district, looking for “the right kind of change”. That kind of talk raises serious alarm bells.
Jim Esch is back for a rematch and has raised a fairly considerable amount of start-up money since he kicked off his bid in late February. An upset can’t be ruled out here.
Few expected this R+6 open seat to become competitive after state Sen. Steve Austria stepped up for the GOP here and early Democratic recruitment efforts bore no fruit. But Democratic attorney Sharen Neuhardt has raised a respectable amount of money, and had a cash-on-hand parity with Austria at the beginning of April. A recent poll for Neuhardt turned a lot of heads: it showed Austria leading only by a 41-35 margin, and on the generic ballot, Democrats had 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. Moreover, Austria may not be all that and a bag o’ chips; in the GOP primary, the Dayton Daily News gave him the most tepid of endorsements, saying that while he “has offended no important person or constituency,” he does not share retiring Rep. Dave Hobson’s “tough independence of mind and political incisiveness” and would likely spend his career of ho-hum service on the back benches.
Races like this one will serve as a key test of just how bad 2008 will be for the GOP.
Last summer, we singled out TX-10 as a district that could turn some heads this year. Despite its R+13 lean, it is trending in the right direction: Gore won 34% of its vote in 2000, while Kerry earned 38% in 2004. And without a home state hero at the top of the ticket, the Democratic performance here could improve once again.
The biggest tell here may have been McCaul’s 2006 performance, where he badly outspent his unknown Democratic opponent yet only walked away with a 55-41 result to show for it. However, McCaul won’t have the luxury of facing off with an underfunded opponent this year. Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, an attorney and local cable TV celebrity, has already raised an impressive amount, and a recent poll by the Texas-based IVR Polls shows McCaul leading Doherty only by six points.
Keep an eye on this one.
What’s your take?
The general election contest will be Jim “51%” Gerlach vs. Bob “Some Dude” Roggio. Obviously this was a big recruitment disappointment. But PA-06 is still willing to elect a Democrat not named Lois Murphy. It escaped notice, but PA-06 was included in the Democracy Corps among the districts where the Democratic challenger was leading by (at 51%) 8 over the Republican incumbent. That’s something.
Why the downgrade in CA-04? As was said, McClintock won the primary last week, and he was indeed the weaker candidate – what exactly has changed in the GOP’s favor?
More cautious than my ratings. I’d definately make these moves:
AL-05 – from Tossup to Lean Dem – I think it’s obvious that Griffith had a solid advantage over the 3rd tier at best recruits running on the republican side.
AZ-01 – from Tossup to Lean Dem – I’d be shocked if the republican candidate comes within 10 points of Kirkpatrick here. This race is similar to AZ-08 in 2006 where republicans nominated a far-right divisive candidate.
NY-13 and NY-26 – from tossups to Lean Dem – Republican utterly failed in both districts to get even a 2nd tier recruit. These should be easy wins.
OH-16 – from tossup to Lean Dem – Another race where we have a top tier recruit who shoujld win easily.
CT-04, IL-10, LA-04, MI-07, NC-08, NV-03, WA-08 – from Lean Rep to Tossups. Charlie Cook has already shifted most of these to Tossup status and these are all races where we have top-notch candidates.
Glad to see NC-10 under races to watch. We’ve got some real potential there with a solid candidate in a wave year.
The Republicans would love to knock off Davis in TN-4, but anybody that knows Tennessee politics would know how much we hate change. Bredesen, a Democrat, swept every county in the state when he was up for re-election. Conservative or Liberal, we do oh so love our incumbents.
I don’t see Davis losing his seat unless the Republicans can somehow connect him to gay marriage or abortion, and they can’t really do either with his record.
-Zak
As usual, great stuff James. I think you read my mind with just about all of these :-). A handful of races I would re-consider, just for the sake of quibbling and making discussion:
CA-46. I know a couple people here at SSP are working for the Democratic recruit, but this seat is safely in Rohrabacher’s hands until proven otherwise. And at this point, no such proof has been put forward. Race to watch for sure, however.
KS-02. I would rank this as a toss-up. From the looks of it, Ryun is going to plow through Jenkins in the primary and retains universal name recognition in the district.
NE-02. I would just call this one a race to watch. There is no polling from the race indicating Terry is in any trouble. I think Obama will be competitive in Nebraska, but I am not a believer in our chances here congressional right now.
OH-07. I would not move this race into a competitive column just yet. That poll is very nice, but it is but a single poll and and it is a Democratic one at that. I would stil include this as a race to watch.
TX-10. Another race I would call safely GOP, at least for now. One poll does not convince me this is not still safely in McCaul’s hands. That being said, I have been reading up a little on this, and along with TX-07, these are the two GOP-controlled Texas districts where Bush’s vote went down the most between 2000 and 2004. So, from that standpoint, I think this is a race to watch along with Skelly-Culberson, has some intrigue. I have really gotten into both of them.
WY-AL. This is a tough one, and maybe I have too much optimism because I like Trauner, but we have had two polls with very similar results: one with Trauner up 41-40 and the other 44-40. In any other race, those would be toss-up numbers; in Wyoming, we know they are not. That being said, leans Dem seems like a fair ranking–at this stage. You could go either way, however, and I understand your thought process.
The others are all spot-on, in my opinion. I think NY-13 will be leans Dem pretty soon but not right this minute, KY-03 has the potential to become a toss-up based on Northup’s strengths, AZ-05 should be leans Dem soon, ditto AL-05, and C0-04 and IL-10 could be moved into the toss-up column given the Obama impact on those respective districts.
Since Jerry McNerney was elected, the voter registration statistics for CA-11 have swung markedly in his favor. In October 23, 2007, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in the District by 20,000 voters (152,192 to 132,227). By May 19, 2008, the margin has shrunk to just 8,000 (144,903 to 136,391). Tom McClintock has a much harder road to hoe than Richard Pombo.
FWIW, all 19 Republican districts have a Republican registration edge. All but one of the 34 Democratic districts have a Democratic edge and CA-11 is the most closely split district in the state by a fairly comfortable margin. The two most vulnerable Republican districts by voter registration stats are CA-3 where Dan Lungren has a 15,000 registrant edge over Bill Durston and CA-25 where Buck McKeon’s edge is just 16,000 over Jackie Conaway.
I’m surprised and looking bullish on McNerney.
Adler has tons of cash, the Republican candidate is broke, the Republican primary was nasty, and the district is almost 50-50. It’s definitely more likely to flip than NJ-07.
Berkowitz defeats Young comfortably but Young loses to Parnell narrowly in the GOP primary. Berkowitz is still competitive with Parnell however.
http://newsminer.com/news/2008…
Anne Barth is getting a lot of traction in WV-02 and proving herself to be a great campaigner.
I wish I had more tangibles to point to beyond her winning her primary decisively last month (e.g., polls, updated fund-raising, etc.). The way Barth has been working so hard and getting a great reception at events is unlike past challengers.
I see this as a race that could easily move to Lean R from Likely R.
Madia in Minnesota’s 3rd is a great story. He has never held office , is an Iraqi Veteran, has an openly gay brother, and scored a huge primary upset.